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　　Editor of Economic Daily-China Economic Net: In 2020, the second half of China’s economy has begun, and the next performance has attracted much attention. Can the employment target be achieved in the second half of this year? What will be the trend of the property market? Will retaliatory consumption appear? … … For these economic hot issues that the society cares about, the Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications released "Born Inward — — Macroeconomic and financial outlook for the second half of 2020 was analyzed and predicted.

　　Employment: The annual target of 9 million yuan can be achieved.

　　According to the report, with the obvious acceleration of the resumption of work and production and the targeted support of policies, it is still relatively certain to achieve the goal of 9 million new jobs set by the government throughout the year. First, focus on supporting the employment of key groups and ensuring new jobs. The second is to focus on supporting small and micro enterprises to reduce unemployment. The third is to develop emerging industries and promote flexible employment. Fourth, strengthen training, expand the number of recruits, ease employment pressure and improve the quality of the labor force.

　　GDP: The economy can achieve positive growth throughout the year.

　　As for the GDP growth rate, the report predicts that the economic growth rate in the second half of the year will be significantly faster than that in the first half of the year. The development of the global epidemic and the recovery of external demand will have an impact on China’s economic operation. Under the benchmark scenario, the economic growth in the third quarter recovered to about 6%, and the annual economic growth rate was about 2.5%. Under the pessimistic scenario, the global demand has been significantly weakened by the repeated epidemic, and the economic growth rate in the third and fourth quarters is still low, with the annual economic growth of about 1%; Under the optimistic scenario, the global epidemic quickly disappeared, the external demand resumed and the domestic active policies were effective, and the economic growth rate rebounded significantly in the third and fourth quarters, with an annual economic growth of about 3.5%.

　　Consumption: there will be no retaliatory consumption, and a moderate recovery can be expected.

　　Will retaliatory consumption appear in the second half of the year? The report doesn’t think it will appear. First, the epidemic has brought a serious impact on outdoor consumption, second, the epidemic has brought an impact on employment, and third, China’s rescue policy has little support for families and individual residents. As the epidemic subsides and production and life return to normal, the recovery of consumption in the second half of the year can be expected, and the consumption varieties may be divided: the consumption of anti-virus products such as medicine, disinfectant and toiletries increases rapidly; Necessary consumer goods, such as daily necessities and electronic products, which are less affected by the epidemic have recovered quickly; Consumption related to real estate and automobile industry chain has gradually improved; The recovery of service consumption may be slow.

　　Investment: Focus on "New Infrastructure"

　　The report predicts that the annual infrastructure investment will increase by 8%. Fiscal and monetary policies focus on targeted support, and infrastructure investment focuses on "new infrastructure". Traditional infrastructure investment will also accelerate, but the intensity may be limited. The downward trend of market interest rate and the decline of financing cost of housing enterprises may support the gradual acceleration of real estate development investment. As the lack of speculation in housing indicates that the real estate control policy will not be relaxed, it will restrict the growth rate of real estate development investment, which is expected to increase by 5% throughout the year. The investment in high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing has a good growth momentum, but the weakening of external demand has a great impact on export-oriented manufacturing. The investment prospects of traditional manufacturing industries are not good, and the operating pressure of enterprises is increasing and profits are narrowing, which will seriously affect the investment expectations of manufacturing industries. The negative growth trend of manufacturing investment may remain for some time, and it is expected to increase by -4% for the whole year. It is estimated that the annual investment will increase by about 3.1%.

　　Bond market: short-term fluctuations do not affect the medium-term trend.

　　The report pointed out that the fluctuation of short-term bond market is mainly disturbed by factors such as the marginal slowdown of monetary policy easing. From the medium-term logic point of view: the current marginal slowdown of monetary policy operation is not a monetary policy shift, and the recovery of the real economy has just begun and the long-term growth pressure is still great. The withdrawal of policy strength from the emergency mode during the anti-epidemic period is a short-term disturbance. In the second half of the year, under the control of the central bank’s "moderate money+wide credit", the money market interest rate SHIBOR and other probabilities are still "fluctuating" at the bottom. Although the bond market yield is difficult to show a sharp trend, the overall sharp rebound in the second half of the year does not have the driving foundation of liquidity fundamentals.

　　Stock market: maintaining range volatility and grasping structural opportunities

　　The report believes that fundamental recovery, low valuation, sustained net inflow of foreign capital, possible acceleration of credit cycle expansion and a series of reform measures in the equity market are all positive factors in the current domestic equity market. However, considering more uncertainties overseas, the stock market will still maintain a range fluctuation pattern during the year, and the bottom point should not fall below again during the year. However, considering the adaptation to the basic situation, there are some difficulties in continuing to attack, and we should remain cautiously optimistic. From the perspective of investment opportunities, we can still focus on new infrastructure areas such as science and technology supported by policies, and leading enterprises in industries such as essential consumer goods related to domestic demand and medicines related to making up shortcomings. The registration system continues to advance, and it is expected that the market profit will be concentrated in the head enterprises in the future, and the trend of "the strong will be strong" will continue.

　　Exchange rate: Sino-US relations dominate the exchange rate trend, and two-way fluctuations may become the norm.

　　Since 2018, due to political factors such as trade friction, the RMB exchange rate has deviated from fundamental factors. The report predicts that the US dollar may weaken slightly in the second half of the year, while the spread between China and the United States will remain high. Under the background of loose global liquidity and ultra-low interest rates, RMB assets are expected to continue to attract foreign capital inflows, and the RMB exchange rate may rebound slightly to around 7. However, in the second half of the year, the global epidemic situation is still uncertain, the market sentiment is still fragile, and American politicians may still make an issue of China during the election, so the RMB exchange rate fluctuates greatly. It is expected that the RMB exchange rate may fluctuate in the range of [6.9,7.2].

　　Property market: There is great pressure on housing prices in these places.

　　For the property market in the second half of the year, the report predicts that the transaction trend may change in two stages: the first stage is the short-term repair and replenishment of sales volume, and the regulation policy of tightening outside and loosening inside and the liquidity dividend of rising water are two catalysts to promote the release of demand; The second stage is to return to the original downward cycle. If the policy orientation does not change, short-term gap repair will not be enough to constitute a cyclical upswing. The regional performance is even more different: the "resident demand" in first-and second-tier cities is easy to release, and the pressure of rising house prices in low-inventory areas such as Shenzhen and Hangzhou is high; It is difficult to maintain the "demand for migratory birds" in third-and fourth-tier cities, and the old reform effect cannot completely replace the shed reform. Thanks to the friendly monetary environment, the pressure on the capital cost of housing enterprises has obviously eased.

　　Crude oil: oversupply eased, and oil prices may fluctuate upward.

　　In terms of crude oil, the report believes that China leads the recovery of global crude oil demand, and the "OPEC+"production reduction agreement has begun to take effect, which has jointly eased the pressure of oversupply in the market. However, the upward pace of oil prices will slow down after experiencing a significant rebound. First, although the demand for crude oil is improving, it still faces uncertainty. Second, the production reduction action started at the end of 2016 also proves that under the background of the rising of non-OPEC+oil producers such as the United States, multi-party games run through the production reduction agreement, and the "OPEC+"production reduction action alone is not enough to fundamentally change the situation of oversupply. Third, the high inventory of crude oil still needs to be digested. In the second half of the year, the oil price will fluctuate upwards, and the Brent oil price center may be 40-55 USD/barrel.

　　Gold: the allocation value is prominent, and the upward momentum of gold price is sufficient.

　　Affected by the epidemic, the financial market has been in great turmoil this year, while the gold market has a unique scenery. Looking forward to the market outlook, based on the safe-haven function and value-preserving function of gold, the report predicts that the price of gold still has sufficient upward momentum, or mainly fluctuates higher. First of all, the fear of a new round of pneumonia has stimulated investors’ safe-haven demand for gold assets. Secondly, in the global monetary easing policy and low interest rate environment, the expectation of inflation and currency depreciation has increased, triggering the demand for gold preservation. Finally, in the coming period, uncertainties from the United States and the dollar will also support the rise of gold prices.

　　The report was completed by Cai Puhua, Zhou Kunping, Tang Jianwei, Liu Jian, Chen Ji, Liu Xuezhi, Hu Yanan, Xia Dan and Jian Wu from the Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications. (Economic Daily-China Economic Net reporter Ma Changyan)

　　Beijing, August 11th (Reporter Li Jinlei) When something unusual happens, you should pay attention to the unusual signal behind it.

　　These days, Ning Ji Zhe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, Liu Kun, Minister of Finance, Zhang Jinan, Minister of Human Resources and Social Security, Zhong Shan, Minister of Commerce, and Yi Gang, Governor of the Central Bank, have appeared in news broadcast one after another, and a series of heavy voices have revealed the future policy direction, which concerns many people’s jobs and wallets.

　　Stabilizing employment: promoting the employment of key groups

　　Employment is the biggest livelihood. Only when the rice bowl is stable can we increase our income and promote consumption. Therefore, the state puts employment in the first place of "six guarantees" and "six guarantees". However, affected by the epidemic, employment started in a downturn this year, but it is gradually stabilizing.

　　Zhang Jinan announced a set of figures: the number of new jobs in cities and towns rose from 390 thousand in February to one million per month in the near future; According to the survey, the overall unemployment rate is about 6%, and it has dropped month by month since the second quarter. In May, the recruitment demand increased by 2% year-on-year, which turned from negative to positive for the first time since February, and continued to pick up in June.

　　However, Zhang Jinan reminded that this year, affected by the epidemic, the market demand of college graduates declined, recruitment was postponed, job hunting was limited, and the level of youth unemployment rose. With college graduates entering the market in July and August, the employment of key groups will face new pressure.

　　How to ensure the employment of key groups?

　　Zhang Jinan said that in the second half of the year, registered unemployed people will be provided with basic public employment services free of charge, and policies such as rent reduction, tax incentives, and business guarantee loans will be actively implemented to help them find jobs and start businesses through multiple channels. For college graduates, we will continue to encourage expanding the scale of enterprise absorption, expanding the scale of grassroots employment, expanding the scale of further studies, and expanding the scale of training and internship. For migrant workers, employment services, vocational training and rights protection will be strengthened, and employment outside the home and in the local area will be promoted. In particular, the employment of poor laborers with established files will be done well.

　　Yi Gang pointed out that in the second half of the year, the monetary policy should be more flexible, moderate and precise, and the policies that have been introduced to stabilize enterprises and ensure employment should be effectively implemented.

　　Data Map: The scale of participating vehicles at Changchun Auto Show in 2020 reached a new high. Photo by Zhang Yao

　　Promote consumption: relax the purchase restriction of new energy vehicles

　　Expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption are essential for stabilizing economic growth.

　　On July 30th, Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party called for "firmly grasping the strategic base point of expanding domestic demand", continuously expanding domestic demand, overcoming the impact of the epidemic, expanding final consumption, and creating conditions for upgrading residents’ consumption.

　　Regarding how to expand consumption, Ning Ji Zhe pointed out that to expand domestic demand, we should give full play to the basic role of consumption in economic growth. In the second half of the year, China will accelerate the high-quality development of new consumption such as smart retail and online education, promote the transformation and upgrading of automobile and household appliances consumption, encourage cities with restricted purchases to appropriately increase the purchase limit of automobiles, relax the purchase restriction of new energy vehicles, and give appropriate subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles.

　　Ning Ji Zhe said that the development of consumption gathering areas in counties is the focus of expanding domestic demand this time, and it is also a place with great potential for consumption development. For example, the renovation of pedestrian streets in county towns should be supported by loans, and some corporate bonds can be issued to support this renovation, so that the consumption of China is not only in big cities, but also in medium cities and counties.

　　"Work hard to promote consumption." Zhongshan said that to promote urban consumption, it is necessary to promote the transformation and upgrading of pedestrian streets and develop chain (convenience) stores. It is also necessary to expand rural consumption, promote e-commerce into rural areas, and promote industrial products to the countryside and agricultural products to the city.

　　Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Research Association of China Policy Science Research Association, told the reporter of Zhongxin.com that it is necessary to create a market environment conducive to promoting consumption, promote fair competition, crack down on counterfeiting, improve product quality, let consumers eat and use with confidence, and vigorously cultivate emerging consumption represented by online consumption, so that consumers can "consume, dare to consume and are willing to consume".

　　Data Map: Visitors watch the 5G indoor router at close range. China News Service reporter Jiang Qiming photo

　　Steady investment: promoting the construction of "two new and one heavy"

　　To expand domestic demand, we must actively expand effective investment.

　　Ning Ji Zhe pointed out that in terms of investment, we should focus on promoting the construction of new infrastructure, new urbanization, transportation and water conservancy and other major projects, increase efforts to make up for shortcomings in public health, emergency materials reserve, transportation and energy, implement urban renewal, and speed up the transformation of old urban communities.

　　Private investment accounts for nearly 60% of the total social investment and is an important force to stabilize investment. Ning Ji Zhe said that in the second half of the year, China will further improve the environment for private investment, increase policy support, and support private capital to participate in the construction of short-board areas such as epidemic response, public health, warehousing and logistics, and emergency reserve. At the same time, it will guide banks to launch credit products suited to the characteristics of private enterprises and increase the scale and proportion of credit loans and medium-and long-term loans.

　　Yi Gang has made it clear that the comprehensive use of various monetary policy tools will guide the growth rate of broad money supply and social financing scale to be significantly higher than last year, and at the same time pay attention to grasping the rhythm and optimizing the structure, so as to promote the reasonable growth of inclusive small and micro enterprise loans and medium-and long-term manufacturing loans.

　　Liu Kun pointed out that in order to cope with the impact of the epidemic, the fiscal policy was "additive", and 1 trillion yuan of special anti-epidemic national debt was issued, focusing on supporting local infrastructure construction and epidemic prevention and control.

　　The picture shows people watching the launch of the Long March 5 rocket at the seaside. Luo Yunfei

　　Steady expectations: China’s economy is expected to achieve positive growth throughout the year.

　　China’s economy rebounded deeply in the first half of the year, and its economy grew by 3.2% in the second quarter, which was obviously better than expected and achieved the first recovery in the world. Looking forward to the whole year, what is the macroeconomic trend of China?

　　Ning Ji Zhe pointed out that the situation of China’s economic recovery is well-founded, conditional and sustainable, while the fundamentals of China’s economic stability and long-term improvement have not changed and are emerging.

　　From the production point of view, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size has been increasing for three consecutive months since April; The service industry production index has achieved positive growth for two consecutive months. From the demand side, fixed asset investment achieved positive growth in the second quarter, and the decline in total retail sales of social consumer goods narrowed for four consecutive months. The gradual recovery of supply and demand cycle can be said to improve the sustainability of economic recovery.

　　Yi Gang said that on the one hand, various industries have recovered rapidly; On the other hand, demand has gradually recovered, investment has rebounded significantly, consumption has continued to recover, and exports have obviously improved. While the economy is recovering, the price level has remained stable.

　　"Overall, the characteristics of China’s great economic potential and sufficient resilience have not changed. China’s economic growth will continue to recover in the second half of the year, and it is expected to achieve positive growth throughout the year." Yi Gang judgment. (End)