Vocational qualification examination is related to the professional development of every professional and technical personnel. On February 1st, the reporter learned from the people’s social department of our city that in order to assist the majority of candidates to successfully apply for the professional and technical qualification examination and provide better examination services, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security recently issued a notice to make arrangements for the registration time, professional and technical qualification examination process and related information inquiry methods of some professional and technical personnel in 2024 for the reference of testers.
Jin Hu retired from the old year and Yutu welcomed the new year. On New Year’s Eve, in order to let citizens and tourists spend a festive and lively Spring Festival, Xi ‘an, Shaanxi Province has carefully prepared grand theme fireworks display activities in six areas of the city to celebrate the Happy Year of China.
On January 21st, New Year’s Eve, in Xixian New Area, Xi ‘an, Kunming and Chi Pan, a grand fireworks show attracted many people. Fireworks ignite the city fireworks, conveying the joy and happiness of the Year of the Rabbit and the New Year. At 8 o’clock that night, fireworks of various shapes were like blooming flowers, blooming in the night sky. Under the fireworks, smiling faces were full of happiness and joy. Everyone raised their mobile phones and cameras to record beautiful moments and looked forward to the arrival of the New Year in the colorful fireworks.
Colorful and colorful fireworks not only presented a wonderful visual feast for citizens and tourists, but also showed the prosperity of the rapid recovery of tourism in the ancient city of Xi’ an. Appreciate the splendor of thousands of trees blooming in the east wind at night, and the flowers of fire trees and silver flowers blooming all night. In the dazzling fireworks show, everyone wishes the great motherland prosperity and the people a happy and healthy life.
Gorgeous fireworks carry people’s good wishes for the new year. During the Spring Festival this year, Xi ‘an will also hold a number of colorful Spring Festival cultural tours.
(Reporter Yan Xingguang, Yan Xiaobin, Zhao Zhenkai)
The Hong Kong SAR Government has previously announced that the Shenzhen Bay Port will operate 24 hours a day from New Year’s Eve to the fourth day (February 9-13); The opening of Luohu Port was extended to 2 am on New Year’s Eve and the second day of the second day (February 9 and 11). The MTR Corporation announced that on New Year’s Eve, all seven MTR local railway lines (except Airport Express and Disney Line) and light rail lines will run overnight, while three MTR bus routes will extend their service hours. In addition, the cross-boundary train service between east rail line and lo wu station will be extended on New Year’s Eve (9th) and the second day of junior high school (11th) to tie in with the customs clearance time at Luohu Port, but there is no extended service at Lok Ma Chau Station. During the Spring Festival, the MTR is expected to add about 1,850 buses to serve passengers.
According to the MTR, the last train from east rail line to Lo Wu will leave admiralty station at 12: 56 midnight and arrive in lo wu station at about 1: 46 am, about 14 minutes before the port is closed. Passengers should pay attention to the closing time of the port and seize the time to pass the customs. The last east rail line-Admiralty train from lo wu station will depart at 2: 30am (about half an hour after the port is closed) and arrive in admiralty station at about 3: 20am.
MTR reminded that other local railway lines did not extend their services on the evening of the second day (11th), and the normal last bus time will be maintained. The Lok Ma Chau Spur Line Control Point will be closed at 10: 30 pm as usual, and there will be no extended service at Lok Ma Chau Station in east rail line. Train service to and from Lok Ma Chau Station will be maintained, and the last train to Lok Ma Chau Station will leave from admiralty station at 9: 29 pm.
According to the MTR, after discussion with the mainland railway authorities, the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong high-speed rail service will increase 11 pairs (22 shifts) of high-speed trains between Hong Kong West Kowloon Station and Futian Station every day from the second day to the fourth day (11th-13th), and the daily train frequency will increase to 105 pairs. Tickets for new train shifts will be put on sale from now on (3rd). The relevant tickets can be changed on the same day by using Fukuda "Flexible Travel", making it more convenient and flexible for passengers to travel on holidays.
MTR appeals to passengers to use their mobile phones to use MTR Mobile or MTR website to check the last bus information of each railway line, plan their trips in advance and reserve sufficient time for their trips. During the Spring Festival, the MTR will strengthen information dissemination, station instructions and broadcasting to help passengers understand the relevant arrangements.
GDToday reporter chenchen is from Hongkong.
The regulations of self-taught provinces are different, and the provincial policies shall prevail. Including the time, process, policy and entrance of registration are different, but the examination is unified throughout the country, and the academic qualifications are also available on the Internet. Where can I buy textbooks for self-study exams?On this issue, Xiaobian, the online self-study platform of China Education, will simply tell you about it.
Click to enter:If you have questions about the self-study exam, don’t know how to choose the examiner’s college and major, and don’t know the local policy of the self-study exam, click to learn now.
Candidates first go to the website of the examiner’s school to find out what course materials are needed. Then, according to the catalogue, candidates can buy textbooks and real questions from the local large bookstores or book cities. Candidates can also choose to buy them online. Online shopping is more convenient.
First of all, it is the most common and convenient way to buy self-taught textbooks online.
Through the Internet, students can easily search and purchase undergraduate teaching materials for self-taught examinations on major e-commerce platforms. Those well-known e-commerce platforms have sales channels for self-taught undergraduate teaching materials, and students can search for the corresponding teaching materials on the platform according to their own needs and place an order for purchase. Online shopping is not only convenient and fast, but also can enjoy some promotional discounts and preferential activities, saving the purchase cost.
Secondly, students can choose to go to the library to buy self-taught undergraduate textbooks or borrow related textbooks.
Many universities and public libraries have small-scale sales areas for students to buy self-taught textbooks. These textbooks are often screened and recommended, and the quality is guaranteed. In addition, students can choose to borrow textbooks for self-taught undergraduate courses in the library, which can effectively reduce the learning cost and improve the efficiency of self-study by using the learning environment of the library.
In addition, students can also choose to buy self-taught undergraduate textbooks from some large bookstores.
Large bookstores often have a relatively complete range of teaching materials and inventories, which can meet the needs of students with different professional contents. In addition, you can consult professional salespeople to get more study suggestions and recommended books when buying textbooks in bookstores, which is a good learning resource for self-taught students.
The above is related to the adult self-study exam, and candidates can use it as a reference, which is subject to the official announcement! Candidates want to get more information about the self-taught examination, such as the registration time, examination time, application conditions, preparation knowledge, related news, etc. Please pay attention to the online self-taught examination channel of China Education.
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If you have any questions about the self-study exam, don’t know how to choose the main examination institution and major, and don’t know the local policy of self-study exam, click to learn now > >
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In April, 2024, all provinces registered for self-study exams in official website.
Summary of Registration Time and Entrance of Self-taught Exams in April 2024 by Provinces
On June 12th, the only elevator in the City 118 Hotel in Liangshan County was posted with the notice "Please take the escalator for elevator maintenance".
An application submitted by Xiao Zhang, a candidate who stayed in the hotel, for "no longer arranging accommodation with the school". Qilu Evening News Qilu point reporter Sun Fenghui photo
Seeing that the college entrance examination time is coming, the candidates are trapped in the hotel elevator. This worrying scene happened in a hotel in Liangshan County, Jining City. At 2 o’clock in the afternoon of June 8, six college entrance examination candidates in Liangshan County were trapped for more than 40 minutes while taking the elevator in the City 118 Hotel, so they missed the English exam. How did it happen? How did the incident affect the candidates? What did the education department say? How did the hotel negotiate with the parents of the candidates? How did the hotel respond? Qilu Evening News A reporter from Qilu started an interview.
Qilu Evening News Qilu Yidian reporter Chu Siyu
11 minutes beyond the entry time.
6. Candidates are rejected.
Candidates told reporters that because their families live far away, on June 6, they checked in at the City 118 Hotel (Phoenix City Store in Liangshan County), which is about 800 meters away from the test center. Unexpectedly, before the last English test, they encountered an elevator failure. "On the afternoon of the 8th, due to the need to enter the venue 15 minutes in advance for the English exam, we took the hotel elevator downstairs at 14: 15, but we didn’t get out of the elevator until 14: 55. Because during this period, the elevator did not open after arriving at the first floor. " Less than that, at that time, in addition to their six candidates, there was also a takeaway from the US Mission.
Suddenly, the takeaway immediately pressed the emergency call button in the elevator, and the administrator in charge of hotel engineering maintenance still failed to open the elevator door within 10 minutes. Candidate Xiao Zhang said: "We also applied to the staff to dial 119, but the staff said it could be opened within 10 minutes, but it didn’t open within 10 minutes. Later, it was delayed until the exam began, and the elevator door was still not opened. When I got out of the elevator, the college entrance examination time was delayed. "
"At about 14: 20, Fang Tangping, the class teacher of Class 6, Grade 3, Liangshan Modern High School, saw the video uploaded by the candidate Xiao Zhang in the class QQ group, saying that six candidates were trapped in the elevator. The situation was urgent, so I asked Fang Tangping and two policemen to rush to the hotel involved." Huang Xiangyu, vice president of Liangshan Modern High School, said that there were four candidates staying in the hotel, and the remaining two candidates set out from home to take the English test together at the hotel.
After waiting anxiously for a long time, at 14: 27, the candidate Xiao Zhang called 110, hoping to open a green channel and escort the candidate to the test center in time.
At 14: 34, two policemen on duty and Fang Tangping from Liangshan County Public Security Bureau arrived at the hotel. At 14: 37, Huang Xiangyu, who was in the test center of Liangshan No.1 Middle School, called 119 for help. Thirteen minutes later, rescuers from Liangshan County Fire Brigade arrived at the hotel. At 14: 55, six trapped students were rescued from the elevator. One minute later, the examinee arrived at the test center by police car.
While the candidates were rescued, the staff of Liangshan County Recruitment Committee Office reported to the Municipal Recruitment Committee for the first time. Reply from the Municipal Recruitment Committee: Strictly implement the provisions of the college entrance examination, and six candidates are not allowed to enter the examination room after the prescribed entry time of 14: 45.
Six candidates were turned away because they exceeded the entrance time of the exam by 11 minutes, and accompanied by the team leader, they returned to the hotel to wait for the results.
If the candidate agrees to repeat the exam
The school will reduce some fees.
The reporter learned that among the six candidates who were trapped in the elevator, five were art candidates who studied broadcasting hosting or choreography, and one was a general culture candidate. Four of the art candidates have passed the professional course exam.
On June 9, accompanied by parents and teachers, six candidates went to Liangshan County Education and Sports Bureau and were told that they could not make up the exam. Candidates are less than saying, "professional courses have passed the score line, and you can go to the undergraduate course after taking an English test. You have worked hard for so long, so you missed it. What worries us more is whether the college entrance examination reform next year can be admitted to the university or not. " "At that time, my mood was very collapsed. Some students were crying at the entrance of the test center, and my heart was very uncomfortable." Candidate Xiao Zhang said.
Candidate Xiao Li said: "I feel that this may be a turning point that changes our lives. It turned out to be an upward turning point, and now it feels like being destroyed."
"My children have been studying for more than ten years, just for this exam. Because of the elevator failure, my child’s life has been delayed, and the hotel must give us an explanation. " Mr. Zhang, the parent of the candidate, said.
According to the reporter’s understanding, as early as May 29th, four candidates who stayed in the City 118 Hotel submitted an application to Liangshan Modern Senior High School that they would no longer arrange accommodation with the school. With the consent of the class teacher and the school, they stayed in the City 118 Hotel on their own under the arrangement of their parents. Regarding the experience of six candidates, Huang Xiangyu said that if the candidates agree to repeat one year, the school will reduce some fees according to the results of the college entrance examination. If you choose to continue to apply for the exam, the school can arrange experienced teachers to give one-on-one application guidance, and strive to let the children be admitted to the corresponding schools.
The hotel offered to pay 20 thousand each.
The two sides failed to reach an agreement.
On the afternoon of the 12th, the reporter rushed to the hotel and found that the only elevator had been posted with the notice of "Please take the escalator for elevator maintenance".
"On the afternoon of the 8th, we shut down the elevator and cut off the power supply. At present, the hotel has also stayed in many candidates, and the elevator will not run until the cause of the failure is determined. " Fang Yameng, the legal representative of City 118 Hotel (Phoenix City Store in Liangshan County), said that six candidates had an accident at the hotel, and they will definitely not escape the responsibility. They are currently mediating with the parents of six candidates.
"According to the cost of the candidates’ re-reading in school and the art test, we proposed a compensation of 20,000 yuan per person, but it was rejected. The appeal made by parents is 200,000 compensation per person, which is really unreasonable for us. " Fang Yameng said that the hotel will do its best to meet the financial compensation reasonably demanded by parents. If the two sides can’t reach a settlement, he prefers to solve the problem through judicial channels.
Regarding the problem that the elevator broke down and the car door could not be opened, the county market supervision bureau immediately ordered the hotel elevator to stop using, and investigated and collected evidence from the manufacturer, installation unit and maintenance. "After investigation, the elevator manufacturer is Lida Boshi (Suzhou) Co., Ltd., and the elevator installation company is Heze Bojie Elevator Co., Ltd. The elevator installation date is September 12, 2018, and it has passed the inspection of Jining Branch of the Provincial Special Inspection Institute." Sun Yinliang, deputy director of Liangshan County Market Supervision Administration, told the reporter that during the normal maintenance period, the latest maintenance of the elevator was June 1, 2019. In order to find out the cause of elevator failure, elevator manufacturers and professional testing institutions have been coordinated to come to the hotel for testing.
"This elevator failure was accidental. After the incident, we ran the test again and found no problems. Due to the narrow elevator space, it was initially suspected that the passenger accidentally touched the elevator door lock sensor. After the door lock was disconnected, the elevator brake guarantee started and the elevator stopped. " Jin Feng, manager of Shandong Heze Bojie Elevator Co., Ltd. said that the specific cause of the elevator failure needs further testing by the factory staff. The reporter learned that on the morning of the 13th, elevator manufacturers and professional elevator inspection agencies will arrive at the hotel involved.
The full text is 723 words in total | It takes about 3.5 minutes to finish reading.
one
Spring Festival approaching
The flavor of the year is getting stronger and stronger.
Is everyone busy preparing for the new year’s goods?
While preparing
There is one thing to pay special attention to.
That’s fireworks.
Since January 1, 2022,
Beijing will no longer set up fireworks retail outlets.
The city has implemented a global ban on fireworks and firecrackers.
But recently
There’s still someone else
Be stupid for "listening"
Take risks and buy fireworks and firecrackers from other places to Beijing
furthermore
Receiving orders to transport fireworks and firecrackers
……
below/under/underneath
Xiaoxingxing will take you.
Look at these cases.
↓↓↓
"Fireworks purchased outside Beijing
Can it be shipped back to Beijing for discharge? "
Not long ago, when the police inspected the vehicle at Fengheying checkpoint, they found five boxes of fireworks and firecrackers in Gao’s car, claiming that they were bought from outside Beijing and had to be brought back to Beijing to set them off … Illegal transportation of fireworks and firecrackers has violated the relevant provisions of the Public Security Administration Punishment Law. At present, Daxing police have imposed administrative detention on Gao for five days according to law.
Attention, attention, attention!
Don’t transport without a license!
No discharge in the forbidden area!
Recently, when the police patrolled the area, they found six boxes of fireworks and firecrackers in the trunk of a vehicle. Upon inquiry, it was learned that after the car owner Zhang attended a friend’s wedding outside Beijing, the other party gave him the remaining fireworks and firecrackers. Zhang intended to bring it back to his hometown in Shanxi before the Spring Festival, but he was seized by the police before he left. At present, Daxing police have imposed administrative detention on Zhang for 5 days for illegally transporting dangerous substances.
I was lucky enough to receive a "big order"
And got arrested …
Recently, the police found 26 boxes of fireworks and firecrackers in a car during their duty. Upon inquiry, they learned that the driver Su Mou took an order from a stranger and asked him to transport fireworks and firecrackers from other places to Beijing. Knowing the relevant laws and regulations, Su was still lucky enough to take orders for transportation, but he did not expect to be seized by the police just after entering Daxing District. At present, the driver Su Mou has been administratively detained by Daxing police for illegally transporting dangerous substances.
Police tips
Although the beauty of fireworks is romantic, it is illegal to produce, store, manage and transport fireworks and firecrackers without permission, and there are great security risks. At the same time, the general public and friends are reminded that from January 1, 2022, the city has implemented a global ban on fireworks and firecrackers, and no retail outlets for fireworks and firecrackers are set up. Please actively support the safety management of fireworks and firecrackers in Beijing, abide by the ban regulations, and do not set off fireworks and firecrackers (including cold fireworks and children’s toy fireworks) illegally, and consciously resist illegal fireworks and firecrackers.
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Source: Daxing Public Security
Editor: Wang Jingsi
Audit: Zhao Liang Tu Ling.
Issued by: Wang Jiao
Not long ago, Mr. Jin, who works in a chemical company in Yangzhou, successfully completed the registration procedures for the transfer of used cars. "I found a joint venture brand car with Qingdao license in 2015 on the second-hand car trading platform, and the hand price was 33,500 yuan." Mr. Jin said that in Jiangsu, from June 17, foreign used cars that meet the national five emission standards can move in normally.
Mr. Jin is just one of the many beneficiaries of the favorable policy for used cars. On June 22, the executive meeting of the State Council decided that the restrictions on the moving-in of small non-operating used cars will be completely lifted from August 1, and the automobile sales enterprises will implement separate endorsement management and issue temporary license plates when applying for transfer registration from October 1. Luo Lei, Deputy Secretary-General of china automobile dealers association, said that favorable policies will further enliven the used car market, promote the renewal of automobile consumption and release the consumption potential.
Favorable policies help the market to accelerate development.
"The circulation of used cars is actually convenient and smooth." Chen Ji, general manager of Suzhou Lexuan UCAR, told the reporter that the company has collected more than 10 used cars with foreign licenses after Jiangsu province lifted the relocation restriction in mid-June. "The cancellation of the relocation restriction not only allows more foreign car sources to enter Suzhou, but also the second-hand cars with the national five emission standards that cannot be digested locally can be sold to various places more conveniently." Chen Ji said.
Wang Xiaoyu, co-founder of Guazi used car, believes that the cancellation of the relocation restriction policy has opened up the blocking points and card points in the circulation of used cars, which will activate the trading of used cars in different places and drive the continuous growth of the trade scale. "Since June 1, Hebei, Jiangsu, Tianjin, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other places have successively implemented the policy of canceling the national five emission standards for second-hand cars. The range of optional car sources for users in these places has expanded by about 6 times, and the proportion of off-site car sources on the platform has also increased from the previous 35% to 80%, which has driven the growth of platform car dealers’ sales." Wang Xiaoyu said.
"The policy of separate endorsement management and issuance of temporary number plates for second-hand car transfer registration implemented nationwide since October 1 is a big plus for second-hand car circulation enterprises in cities with limited purchases." Guo Jian, general manager of the famous car in Beijing No.1 Station, said, "In the past, in order to transfer and register used cars in Beijing, it was necessary to occupy the index of car purchase, and circulation enterprises could only rent number plates. After Beijing promoted the temporary license plate policy in advance, it reduced the company’s operating expenses, and the acquired used cars entered the company’s name, which can be treated as ‘ Inventory goods ’ Accounting has also opened the door to social financing. "
Feeling the huge development potential of the used car market, SAIC-GM launched a brand-new "Buick officially certified used car" brand last year. "Since 2020, especially since the first half of this year, a series of policies and measures to encourage the development of the used car market have been intensively introduced." Yao Fu, head of the marketing department of SAIC-GM Buick, said that the favorable policies cover all aspects such as encouraging to speed up the elimination and renewal of old vehicles, completely canceling the relocation restriction policy, and lowering the value-added tax rate of used cars. Combined with the implementation of the new policy, the company will open up the new and used car business chain through active car source repurchase, realize the three-dimensional sales model of national circulation, and gradually plan a standardized service system equivalent to the new car type to enhance the service experience of used car owners.
Branding and digitalization to enhance the transparency of transaction information
At the beginning of July, Mr. Ju, the owner of a restaurant in Shanghai, bought a Buick Angkewei in 2019 through the "Buick Official Certified Used Car". "I bought a new car with a car age of 3 years in the early 100,000 yuan, and I have been driving for more than 20 days. It feels really good." Mr. Ju said that he considered a new car, ran through the used car market, brokerage companies, and saw the online platform, and finally chose an officially certified used car.
"Quality and service are the two core competitiveness of used car distribution enterprises, and they are also an important way to build consumer trust and enhance consumer experience." Luo Lei believes that the official certification of used cars by car companies is guaranteed by high-quality first-hand car sources, standardized testing and evaluation processes, original factory warranty, after-sales service, etc., plus the endorsement of car brands, which solves the pain point of information asymmetry of consumers buying used cars.
In recent years, the booming second-hand car e-commerce platform has also contributed new solutions to improve the transparency of second-hand car trading information.
"Entering the platform and empowering the platform digitally is an effective way for traditional used car circulation enterprises to enhance their competitiveness." Chen Ji said that platform enterprises can carry out digital and standardized management of used cars in different ways. Consumers can see at a glance whether the vehicles have collided, to what extent, and which side has been painted, which is what most used car circulation enterprises cannot do. In addition, remote delivery, door-to-door delivery, seven-day unreasonable return, etc. are inseparable from the platform enterprises’ strong logistics system, financial support and remote after-sales maintenance.
"Digital means allow enterprises to reach potential customers nationwide." Wang Yong, general manager of Nanjing Qihang Famous Car, said that today, they have sold local car sources to more than 20 cities outside Nanjing, and the turnover efficiency of car sales has increased by three times.
Take precautions and standardize the development of new energy used car market
"In Shanghai, buying new energy used cars is not restricted by licenses, but I gave up after thinking about it again and again." Mr. Ju said that consumers have no way to verify the data related to safety and directly affecting the charging and driving performance of vehicles, such as the number of times of vehicle charging and discharging, the degree of battery attenuation, and whether the batteries are overheated and out of control.
"Since last year, China’s new energy vehicles have continued to double, and the annual sales volume this year is expected to exceed 5.5 million. How to standardize the development of the new energy used car market has become a problem that the industry must seriously face. " Luo Lei said that last year, the Technical Specification for Appraisal and Evaluation of Second-hand Pure Electric Passenger Cars, which was researched and compiled by china automobile dealers association for three years, was released, providing a set of scientific and practical appraisal and evaluation standards for second-hand cars suitable for new energy vehicles for the domestic market.
"Since the second half of last year, the market price of pure electric used cars factory in 2017 has almost doubled. This not only shows that the market’s recognition of new energy used cars has greatly increased, but also means that the previously underestimated hedge ratio is returning rationally. " For example, Shen Wenjun, the founder of Beijing Che Yi De New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., said that the EV150 of Beiqi New Energy, which has a driving range of about 100 kilometers and is six years old, sold for about 10,000 yuan last year, and now it is close to 20,000 yuan.
The second-hand car industry of new energy not only undertakes the replacement of new cars in the upstream, promotes the sustainable development of the new energy vehicle market, but also connects the cascade utilization and recycling of waste power batteries in the downstream, which is an important link in the whole life cycle management of new energy vehicles. Although the current appraisal and evaluation standards, new testing equipment, etc. have made quality identification no longer a problem, in Shen Wenjun’s view, the sustainable development of the industry is still facing challenges without a breakthrough in traceability management of power batteries.
All new energy vehicles are equipped with power battery monitoring system, which can monitor and upload key data in use, and even notify the owner in advance before the battery thermal runaway occurs, but this information cannot be shared. "We have been discussing whether to install a set of similar equipment on the used car for sale and record the operation data of the vehicle’s three electric systems." Shen Wenjun said that this move not only improves the safety of vehicles and user stickiness, but also contributes to the later cascade utilization and recycling.
"The standardized start of the new energy used car market is conducive to the healthy development of the entire used car market." Luo Lei introduced that in 2019, China’s used car trading volume exceeded half of new car sales, and in 2021 it reached 2/3 of new car sales. "With the obvious effect of the policy, in 2025, the transaction volume of used cars will be expected to be the same as that of new cars." Luo Lei said.
Editor of Economic Daily-China Economic Net: In 2020, the second half of China’s economy has begun, and the next performance has attracted much attention. Can the employment target be achieved in the second half of this year? What will be the trend of the property market? Will retaliatory consumption appear? … … For these economic hot issues that the society cares about, the Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications released "Born Inward — — Macroeconomic and financial outlook for the second half of 2020 was analyzed and predicted.
Employment: The annual target of 9 million yuan can be achieved.
According to the report, with the obvious acceleration of the resumption of work and production and the targeted support of policies, it is still relatively certain to achieve the goal of 9 million new jobs set by the government throughout the year. First, focus on supporting the employment of key groups and ensuring new jobs. The second is to focus on supporting small and micro enterprises to reduce unemployment. The third is to develop emerging industries and promote flexible employment. Fourth, strengthen training, expand the number of recruits, ease employment pressure and improve the quality of the labor force.
GDP: The economy can achieve positive growth throughout the year.
As for the GDP growth rate, the report predicts that the economic growth rate in the second half of the year will be significantly faster than that in the first half of the year. The development of the global epidemic and the recovery of external demand will have an impact on China’s economic operation. Under the benchmark scenario, the economic growth in the third quarter recovered to about 6%, and the annual economic growth rate was about 2.5%. Under the pessimistic scenario, the global demand has been significantly weakened by the repeated epidemic, and the economic growth rate in the third and fourth quarters is still low, with the annual economic growth of about 1%; Under the optimistic scenario, the global epidemic quickly disappeared, the external demand resumed and the domestic active policies were effective, and the economic growth rate rebounded significantly in the third and fourth quarters, with an annual economic growth of about 3.5%.
Consumption: there will be no retaliatory consumption, and a moderate recovery can be expected.
Will retaliatory consumption appear in the second half of the year? The report doesn’t think it will appear. First, the epidemic has brought a serious impact on outdoor consumption, second, the epidemic has brought an impact on employment, and third, China’s rescue policy has little support for families and individual residents. As the epidemic subsides and production and life return to normal, the recovery of consumption in the second half of the year can be expected, and the consumption varieties may be divided: the consumption of anti-virus products such as medicine, disinfectant and toiletries increases rapidly; Necessary consumer goods, such as daily necessities and electronic products, which are less affected by the epidemic have recovered quickly; Consumption related to real estate and automobile industry chain has gradually improved; The recovery of service consumption may be slow.
Investment: Focus on "New Infrastructure"
The report predicts that the annual infrastructure investment will increase by 8%. Fiscal and monetary policies focus on targeted support, and infrastructure investment focuses on "new infrastructure". Traditional infrastructure investment will also accelerate, but the intensity may be limited. The downward trend of market interest rate and the decline of financing cost of housing enterprises may support the gradual acceleration of real estate development investment. As the lack of speculation in housing indicates that the real estate control policy will not be relaxed, it will restrict the growth rate of real estate development investment, which is expected to increase by 5% throughout the year. The investment in high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing has a good growth momentum, but the weakening of external demand has a great impact on export-oriented manufacturing. The investment prospects of traditional manufacturing industries are not good, and the operating pressure of enterprises is increasing and profits are narrowing, which will seriously affect the investment expectations of manufacturing industries. The negative growth trend of manufacturing investment may remain for some time, and it is expected to increase by -4% for the whole year. It is estimated that the annual investment will increase by about 3.1%.
Bond market: short-term fluctuations do not affect the medium-term trend.
The report pointed out that the fluctuation of short-term bond market is mainly disturbed by factors such as the marginal slowdown of monetary policy easing. From the medium-term logic point of view: the current marginal slowdown of monetary policy operation is not a monetary policy shift, and the recovery of the real economy has just begun and the long-term growth pressure is still great. The withdrawal of policy strength from the emergency mode during the anti-epidemic period is a short-term disturbance. In the second half of the year, under the control of the central bank’s "moderate money+wide credit", the money market interest rate SHIBOR and other probabilities are still "fluctuating" at the bottom. Although the bond market yield is difficult to show a sharp trend, the overall sharp rebound in the second half of the year does not have the driving foundation of liquidity fundamentals.
Stock market: maintaining range volatility and grasping structural opportunities
The report believes that fundamental recovery, low valuation, sustained net inflow of foreign capital, possible acceleration of credit cycle expansion and a series of reform measures in the equity market are all positive factors in the current domestic equity market. However, considering more uncertainties overseas, the stock market will still maintain a range fluctuation pattern during the year, and the bottom point should not fall below again during the year. However, considering the adaptation to the basic situation, there are some difficulties in continuing to attack, and we should remain cautiously optimistic. From the perspective of investment opportunities, we can still focus on new infrastructure areas such as science and technology supported by policies, and leading enterprises in industries such as essential consumer goods related to domestic demand and medicines related to making up shortcomings. The registration system continues to advance, and it is expected that the market profit will be concentrated in the head enterprises in the future, and the trend of "the strong will be strong" will continue.
Exchange rate: Sino-US relations dominate the exchange rate trend, and two-way fluctuations may become the norm.
Since 2018, due to political factors such as trade friction, the RMB exchange rate has deviated from fundamental factors. The report predicts that the US dollar may weaken slightly in the second half of the year, while the spread between China and the United States will remain high. Under the background of loose global liquidity and ultra-low interest rates, RMB assets are expected to continue to attract foreign capital inflows, and the RMB exchange rate may rebound slightly to around 7. However, in the second half of the year, the global epidemic situation is still uncertain, the market sentiment is still fragile, and American politicians may still make an issue of China during the election, so the RMB exchange rate fluctuates greatly. It is expected that the RMB exchange rate may fluctuate in the range of [6.9,7.2].
Property market: There is great pressure on housing prices in these places.
For the property market in the second half of the year, the report predicts that the transaction trend may change in two stages: the first stage is the short-term repair and replenishment of sales volume, and the regulation policy of tightening outside and loosening inside and the liquidity dividend of rising water are two catalysts to promote the release of demand; The second stage is to return to the original downward cycle. If the policy orientation does not change, short-term gap repair will not be enough to constitute a cyclical upswing. The regional performance is even more different: the "resident demand" in first-and second-tier cities is easy to release, and the pressure of rising house prices in low-inventory areas such as Shenzhen and Hangzhou is high; It is difficult to maintain the "demand for migratory birds" in third-and fourth-tier cities, and the old reform effect cannot completely replace the shed reform. Thanks to the friendly monetary environment, the pressure on the capital cost of housing enterprises has obviously eased.
Crude oil: oversupply eased, and oil prices may fluctuate upward.
In terms of crude oil, the report believes that China leads the recovery of global crude oil demand, and the "OPEC+"production reduction agreement has begun to take effect, which has jointly eased the pressure of oversupply in the market. However, the upward pace of oil prices will slow down after experiencing a significant rebound. First, although the demand for crude oil is improving, it still faces uncertainty. Second, the production reduction action started at the end of 2016 also proves that under the background of the rising of non-OPEC+oil producers such as the United States, multi-party games run through the production reduction agreement, and the "OPEC+"production reduction action alone is not enough to fundamentally change the situation of oversupply. Third, the high inventory of crude oil still needs to be digested. In the second half of the year, the oil price will fluctuate upwards, and the Brent oil price center may be 40-55 USD/barrel.
Gold: the allocation value is prominent, and the upward momentum of gold price is sufficient.
Affected by the epidemic, the financial market has been in great turmoil this year, while the gold market has a unique scenery. Looking forward to the market outlook, based on the safe-haven function and value-preserving function of gold, the report predicts that the price of gold still has sufficient upward momentum, or mainly fluctuates higher. First of all, the fear of a new round of pneumonia has stimulated investors’ safe-haven demand for gold assets. Secondly, in the global monetary easing policy and low interest rate environment, the expectation of inflation and currency depreciation has increased, triggering the demand for gold preservation. Finally, in the coming period, uncertainties from the United States and the dollar will also support the rise of gold prices.
The report was completed by Cai Puhua, Zhou Kunping, Tang Jianwei, Liu Jian, Chen Ji, Liu Xuezhi, Hu Yanan, Xia Dan and Jian Wu from the Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications. (Economic Daily-China Economic Net reporter Ma Changyan)